Dr. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the IEE, co-authored a new article in together with Andrea Gatto (Wenzhou-Kean University) and Nils Schäfer (Thyssenkrupp AG). The article is titled "African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?" and contributes new insights to the IEE Research Cluster 3 "Sustainable Energy and Food."

The new study of the three authors offers an outlook on the contribution of green hydrogen to African economic development. The inquiry shows that, due to economies of scale, green hydrogen production and exports will likely be concentrated in a few African countries that achieve competitive production costs relatively early. Additionally, cost considerations and the level of the development of democratic institutions will also play a crucial role in establishing renewable hydrogen export hubs in Africa. The assessment of the IEA Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database, updated in October 2023, reveals that Egypt, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa are the leading candidates for hydrogen production and exports from Africa. Consequently, the EU-driven expansion of global green hydrogen production centers in the 2020s and 2030s could result in a shift from petroleum dependence on the Middle East and Russia to hydrogen reliance on just a few African countries by the early 2040s. This deployment could conflict with European interests in fostering energy cooperation with Africa. Without development of comprehensive hydrogen value chains in Africa, green hydrogen sector risks perpetuating extractivism and insecurity, resulting in enclave-style renewable hydrogen industry and a “hydrogen-curse” that exacerbates African maldevelopment.

Sadik-Zada, E.R., Gatto, A. and Schäfer, N. (2025): African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 215, 123974: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974.